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Strategic Procurement: Beyond Efficiency in an Age of Disruption with Paul Noël

The supply chains that gave you a thirty-year competitive advantage may now be your greatest strategic vulnerability.

Paul Noël with hosts Dean van Leeuwen and Graeme Codrington

RELEASE DATE

3 Sept 2026

RUN TIME

1:06:09

EPISODE

GREY ELEPHANT

20

The Big Squeeze

The Elephant in the Room: The Big Squeeze


For thirty years, the logic was unassailable: streamline the supply base, integrate tightly with suppliers, eliminate inventory, squeeze out waste. Just-in-time became the gold standard. Boeing, Toyota, and thousands of companies that followed their model reaped the rewards. And then the assumptions underneath it all - frictionless transport, stable geopolitics, predictable climate, low tariffs - started to disappear. The system that worked beautifully in the world it was designed for is now dangerously exposed in the world we actually live in.

About This Episode


The episode opens with a signal from Dean that on the surface looks like a new sports fixture but is really about industrial power: the humanoid robot games in Beijing, where over 600 teams and 2,000 robots competed - including one that ran the 100 metres faster than Usain Bolt. But looking beyond what the robots can do, the question is why this event happened in Beijing. China hasn’t simply built impressive robots; it has built the supplier ecosystems, the skills networks, and the manufacturing infrastructure to move from prototype to production at scale. Is that the real signal about where industrial capability is moving?


Graeme’s signal is what he calls “the unsexy stuff of change” - the slow-moving layers of the world that we don’t expect to shift quickly, and so don’t plan for when they do. Drawing on Stewart Brand’s Pace Layers model - from fast-moving fashion and commerce down through infrastructure, governance, culture, and the natural environment - he argues that we are now living in a moment where all six layers are changing simultaneously, with no steady state in the foreseeable future. The Straits of Hormuz is exhibit A: a critical global waterway that barely registered in most boardrooms until it suddenly wasn’t.


Our guest this month is Paul Noël, Chairman of Achilles US & Canada, bringing thirty years of experience in procurement, supply chain technology, and business transformation. Paul’s perspective is that of someone who has watched organisations cycle through waves of optimisation without ever quite solving the fundamental tension: the more you outsource, the more risk you move off your balance sheet and into your blind spots. The conversation uncovers where US businesses are most exposed right now, why vertical integration is making a quiet comeback, how data centres have become a perfect microcosm of every modern supply chain challenge, and the three questions Paul would put to any CEO to find out whether their supply chain is genuinely resilient - or just lucky.

Meet Our Guest

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Paul Noël

Chairman, Achilles US & Canada

Currently serving as Chairman of the Board for Achilles' US and Canada operations, Paul brings experience from leadership roles at American Express, SAP/Ariba, Ivalua, and other companies in the procurement, AP, and risk management space. Primarily focused on software for medium and large enterprises, Paul has seen the evolution from behind-the-firewall to SaaS and now to AI-enabled middleware solutions with the potential to disrupt the back office.

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3 Things You'll Take Away


1. Optimising for efficiency has become optimising for fragility. The just-in-time model requires frictionless transport, stable geopolitics, and predictable supply - none of which can be assumed anymore. Leaders who built their competitive advantage on lean supply chains need to rebuild them around resilience without dismantling what still works.


2. Your biggest supply chain blind spots are where you stopped looking. Outsourcing moves risk out of sight, not out of existence. Most large organisations have underinvested in understanding beyond tier one. Paul’s rule: buying activity supports selling activity more than leaders think - and it deserves proportionate resource and board attention.


3. Procurement needs to be a board-level conversation before it becomes a crisis. The companies that handle supply chain shocks best are the ones that already know their CPO by name. Those that don’t tend to find out who they are at the worst possible moment.

Memorable Moments


"We’ve made software agile, we’ve made teams agile, the customer experience agile. But the infrastructure, the governance below it, has largely remained relatively rigid. And that’s the big challenge we see at the moment."  - Dean van Leeuwen, 17:35


"The most important question is what is the part of your business that feels like it’s solid and could never change - the foundation on which you’ve built your business? What happens if it isn’t? What plan do you have and how are you anticipating that?"  - Graeme Codrington, 27:50

"The world turned on its head. You try to optimise for efficiency - winnow down your supply base, integrate tightly. That all has to be rethought, because the underlying assumptions - frictionless transportation, no tariffs - are gone. Tariffs: we thought, like measles, they were gone. But now they’re back."  - Paul Noël, 47:02


"The nightmare of a lot of chief procurement officers is being emergency invited to a board meeting. They should be normally invited to a board meeting. When it’s an emergency and they’re being invited, it is not fun. And not having a relationship there just makes it even worse."  - Paul Noël, 01:01:01

Chapter Markers


  • 00:00 - Cold open: Paul on why supply chain assumptions have to be rethought

  • 01:23 - Welcome: Dean and Graeme introduce the episode

  • 02:08 - Extreme weather update: Nepal glacier collapse, UK heatwaves, and a world on fire

  • 03:44 - Dean’s grey elephant: humanoid robot games in Beijing - China’s industrial capability signal

  • 07:47 - Behind the scenes: how Dean and Graeme approach the podcast differently

  • 09:51 - Graeme’s grey elephant: Stewart Brand’s Pace Layers - the “unsexy stuff of change”

  • 15:00 - Exhibit A: the Straits of Hormuz and what happens when the unsexy changes overnight

  • 17:35 - Agility applied to the wrong layer

  • 22:24 - Grey elephant radar: turning early warning into strategic advantage

  • 24:11 - Boeing and Toyota: when just-in-time turns to just-in-trouble

  • 27:50 - What part of your business feels solid but could change?

  • 28:47 - The opposite viewpoint debate: a tool for challenging sacred cows

  • 29:41 - Monthly quiz: rank the five busiest shipping lanes in the world

  • 36:46 - Achilles sponsor + guest introduction: Paul Noël

  • 37:45 - Thirty years of supply chain optimisation - and its limits

  • 38:42 - Where US businesses are most exposed without realising it

  • 41:05 - Is there a new steady state? Paul’s perspective on transformation timelines

  • 47:02 - When efficiency becomes fragility: rethinking just-in-time delivery

  • 48:01 - Assurance vs insurance: two ways to respond to supply chain risk

  • 50:38 - Blind spots: why buyers underinvest in understanding their supply base

  • 54:25 - Data centres as microcosm: every supply chain problem in one building

  • 57:56 - Three questions every CEO should answer about supply chain resilience

  • 01:01:01 - Do you know your head of procurement’s name?

  • 01:01:50 - The coffee supply chain: a grey elephant nobody is watching

  • 01:05:21 - Close

Frameworks, Books & References Mentioned


Related Episodes

The Elephant You Could Name


Ask your leadership team: does your head of procurement present at board level? Not in a crisis - normally. If the answer is no, that’s your elephant. And ask this too: what part of your business feels so stable you’ve never planned for it to change? Because that’s the one you should be planning for most urgently.

The Seven Grey Elephants

Every episode of Elephants in the Boardroom explores one or more of the seven grey elephants - the high-impact, visible forces of change already in the room, shaping how we lead, work and learn:

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  1. Angry People - rising frustration, polarisation and shifting trust

  2. Ageing Populations - demographic shifts reshaping economies, workforces and care

  3. Angry Planet - climate, ecology and a natural world pushing back

  4. Multipolarity - a fragmenting global order and the end of a single centre of power

  5. Inequality - widening gaps in wealth, access and opportunity

  6. The Big Squeeze - pressure on supply chains, resources, prices and capacity

  7. Intelligent Advances - AI and the technologies reshaping how we think, work and decide

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Learn more about the framework → tomorrowtoday.consulting/greyelephantsintroduction

Strategic Procurement: Beyond Efficiency in an Age of Disruption with Paul Noël

Listen wherever you get your podcasts:

The Seven Grey Elephants

Elephants in the Boardroom is the podcast from TomorrowToday Global - futures thinkers helping leaders see the grey elephants already in the room. Hosted by Dean van Leeuwen and Graeme Codrington, with guests and colleagues from around the world.

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🔗 www.tomorrowtoday.consulting

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This episode is proudly sponsored by Achilles - advanced risk monitoring for suppliers and third parties, helping organisations build anti-fragile, responsible and transparent supply chains. achilles.com

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If this episode helped you see something differently, the most useful thing you can do is pass it on. Forward it to one person who needs to hear it, leave us a review on Apple Podcasts, or tag us on LinkedIn with the elephant you're willing to name.

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Credits:


Hosted by Dean van Leeuwen and Graeme Codrington 
Sponsored by Achilles - Supply  Chain Risk Management https://www.achilles.com/
Produced by Matt from It Starts with a Podcast  https://www.linkedin.com/in/itsmattallen/

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