Dean Van Leeuwen
How Russia will use food and fertiliser to squeeze the West
Last year we introduced our readers and clients to the great grey elephants sharply transforming the world in the 2020s. Two of the grey elephants – defined as highly probable, high impact yet ignored catalyst or forces of change – is the Big Squeeze and Multipolarity (you can read more about grey elephants here). These forces are being used by Russia to reshape the geopolitical environment
As the Financial Times says in the article -- Fertiliser and food: the next point of tension between EU and Moscow: "It has now dawned on EU authorities that the union’s agonising dependence on Russian natural gas will be compounded by Russian companies’ market power over fertiliser. As one Eurocrat told me this week, 'You do not get a Nobel Prize for seeing this fertiliser situation as a threat to Europe’s food security.'” The article is well worth reading at the FT or here is a print out of the article.
Here's the headline summary of the article -- The West has great technology strengths, but gas and fertiliser do not come from a virtual reality headset. Russians had a strategy, and they have executed it.
Grey Elephants are highly probable, high impact yet neglected forces of change. Russia is using the EU's (and world's) dependency on its gas and fertilisers to squeeze out the change it seeks. The change Russia seeks is a leading role in a multipolar world order
By understanding the impact of grey elephants you can build the strategies needed to be agile and resilient during the decade of disruption